张庆方旧文：周永康落马与反腐产业升级 Zhang Qingfang's Past Writings: Zhou Yongkang's Fall and the Upgrade of the Anti-Corruption Industry
尽管已经有了长时间的预热，周永康因严重违纪被立案查处的消息一经正式发布，还是在国内各界燃起了空前的激情。很多人在由衷赞美中央反腐得力的同时，也忍不住内心的好奇:下一个大老虎会是谁？
Despite a long period of anticipation, the official announcement of Zhou Yongkang being investigated for serious disciplinary violations still ignited unprecedented passion across various sectors in China. Many people couldn't help but wonder, while genuinely praising the central government's effective anti-corruption measures: Who will be the next "big tiger" to fall?
这说明了两点，一是新领导人上台以来，锐意澄清社会积弊，铁面惩贪，强力反腐，尽管投入的社会资源巨大，但却收获了更多的道义资源和执政合法性资源，取得了相当大部分民众的衷心拥护。
This indicates two points: first, since the new leadership came to power, they have been determined to clarify societal ills, punish corruption with an iron fist, and vigorously fight corruption. Despite the significant resources allocated, they have gained more moral and governance legitimacy, earning the heartfelt support of a considerable portion of the public.
从这个意义上讲，目前执政党的反腐产业是有效率的，其投入产出比是令人满意的。
In this sense, the ruling party's anti-corruption efforts are efficient, and the ratio of input to output is satisfactory.
二是中国百姓建立廉洁社会的胃口已经被纪检系统一年来攻破的一个个大案彻底吊了起来，如果执政党的反腐就此止步，民众是不会满意的。
Second, the Chinese people's appetite for establishing a clean society has been thoroughly whetted by the major cases cracked by the disciplinary inspection system over the past year. If the ruling party's anti-corruption efforts were to stop now, the public would not be satisfied.
党的领导人短时间内靠反腐获得的巨大声誉和支持，同样可能因不能展示更大更彻底的反腐成果而很快丧失。
The immense reputation and support that party leaders have gained through anti-corruption efforts in a short period might quickly be lost if they fail to demonstrate greater and more thorough anti-corruption achievements.
明天会如何？党的最高领导人会顺从民意的呼唤，用更坚强的意志，无情的手腕，继续在反腐战线上攻克一座座更坚固的堡垒吗？
What about tomorrow? Will the party's top leaders comply with the call of public opinion, with stronger will and relentless measures, continue to conquer even more formidable fortresses on the anti-corruption front?
如果党的纪检系统继续沿用现在的手段和规则办理案件，中国反腐产业未来几年内的边际成本和边际效益当如何衡量？
If the party's disciplinary inspection system continues to handle cases with the current methods and rules, how should we measure the marginal costs and benefits of China's anti-corruption efforts in the coming years?
执政党的整个权力体系会支持和容许其这么做吗？
Will the entire power system of the ruling party support and allow this to happen?
当激情冷却之后，国内百姓还会不会为未来更大老虎的落马给予同样热烈的欢呼？
After the passion cools down, will the people still cheer as enthusiastically for the fall of even bigger "tigers" in the future?
本人认为，寄希望于通过侦办大案建立国家廉政体系，就像过去很长时期内我们国家经济建设中的GDP崇拜一样，是不切实际的。
In my opinion, pinning hopes on establishing a national integrity system through investigating major cases, just like the long-standing GDP worship in our country's economic construction, is unrealistic.
不错，一个国家在从传统社会向现代社会迈进的某个历史时期，需要集全国之力促进经济发展。
Indeed, at certain historical periods in a country's transition from a traditional to a modern society, it is necessary to mobilize the entire nation to promote economic development.
但是，随着一座座矿山的开挖，一个个工厂的投产，这种以经济建设为压倒性目标的发展模式也不可避免地会带来贫富差距扩大，劳工权利恶化，以及严重的环境污染等诸多问题，这已经被中国过去三十年的高速发展所证实。
However, with the excavation of mines and the operation of factories, this development model, which overwhelmingly prioritizes economic construction, inevitably leads to an increased wealth gap, the deterioration of labor rights, and serious environmental pollution, as evidenced by China's rapid development over the past thirty years.
而我国纪检系统目前办理案件的方式，就和依靠投资拉动GDP一样，随着办理案件的增加，不可避免地会带来内部斗争加剧，法治建设倒退，官僚体系效率低下等严重的负面效应。
Similarly, the current method of handling cases by our country's disciplinary inspection system, just like relying on investment to boost GDP, will inevitably lead to increased internal strife, a regression in the construction of the rule of law, and serious negative effects such as inefficiency in the bureaucratic system as the number of cases handled increases.
首先，依靠权力反腐的纪委主导型完全是一种不公开不透明的暗箱操作模式。
Firstly, the power-based, disciplinary committee-led anti-corruption approach is entirely a non-transparent and opaque operation.
目前，中纪委是办理了很多大案，惩处了不少高官，但是，同样有很多问题早已暴露，群众意见很大的腐败分子至今逍遥法外。
Currently, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection has handled many major cases and punished a number of high-ranking officials. However, many well-known issues remain, and corrupt individuals who have attracted significant public outcry remain at large.
这些人和已经落马的那些人有什么本质区别，纪委办案以什么标准划线，国内舆论和国外媒体集中度比较高的几大家族贪腐传闻究竟是真是假？
What is the essential difference between these individuals and those who have already fallen? What standards does the disciplinary committee use to delineate cases, and are the corruption rumors about several families that have attracted significant attention from domestic and foreign media true or false?
对此，既不见纪委出面澄清，国内民众也没有权利要求他们澄清。
Regarding this, the disciplinary committee does not come forward to clarify, nor do the domestic public have the right to demand such clarification.
这种现状如果长期不改变，不但百姓不会满意，被查处和被牵连的党内势力会更无法接受，随着纪委打击面的扩大，党内腐败势力未必不能结成一股强大的反对力量，抗拒阻挠新政的实施。
If this situation does not change in the long term, not only will the public be dissatisfied, but the party forces that are investigated and implicated will find it even more unacceptable. As the disciplinary committee's crackdown widens, corrupt forces within the party might well band together into a powerful opposition force to resist and obstruct the implementation of new policies.
其次，纪委办案是不受国家刑事诉讼法约束的法外治理模式。
Secondly, the disciplinary committee's handling of cases is a form of governance outside the law, not constrained by the national criminal procedure law.
本人和一些地方的反贪局长，刑庭庭长聊过，目前国内一些地方已经出现了运动式反腐的苗头，不论党内党外，不论证据是否扎实，只要为了办案需要，纪委几十上百地对调查对象适用法律之外的限制人身自由措施已成家常便饭。
I have spoken with some local anti-corruption directors and criminal court judges, and in some places in China, there are already signs of a campaign-style approach to anti-corruption. Regardless of whether it's within or outside the party, and regardless of whether the evidence is solid, it has become commonplace for the disciplinary committee to apply measures restricting personal freedom to dozens or even hundreds of investigation subjects, beyond the scope of the law, simply for the needs of handling cases.
而在中国过去二十年的政府主导型经济发展中，企业想获得发展，难免和官员有种种勾连，现在，为了查处一个高官，往往需要几十个企业主被长期关押配合办案，一旦一个企业主失去自由，不论最终是否有罪，他的企业也多半只能关门，进而又会导致众多的失业。
In the past twenty years of government-led economic development in China, enterprises wanting to develop inevitably had various connections with officials. Now, to investigate a high-ranking official, it often requires the long-term detention of dozens of business owners to assist in the case. Once a business owner loses their freedom, regardless of whether they are ultimately found guilty, their business is likely to close, leading to widespread unemployment.
另一方面，由于腐败犯罪多为一对一证据，纪委办案往往重口供轻物证书证，强调攻破心理防线而忽略被调查对象的法定权利，随着众多的夹生饭被移送到司法机关，嫌疑人翻供现象层出不穷。
On the other hand, since evidence of corruption often involves one-on-one testimony, the disciplinary committee's case handling tends to prioritize confessions over physical evidence, emphasizing breaking through psychological defenses while neglecting the legal rights of the subjects under investigation. As a result, with many unfinished cases being transferred to judicial authorities, instances of suspects recanting their testimonies are numerous.
但在现在的法治环境下，司法机关总体上既不敢也不能完全站在法治立场上办案，很多依据法定的证明要求应该宣告无罪的案件，最终还是被强行定案，这又增加了嫌疑人家属和辩护律师与公权力机关的对立。
However, in the current legal environment, judicial authorities generally neither dare nor can fully stand on the principle of rule of law in handling cases. Many cases that should be declared not guilty based on legally required evidence are still forcibly concluded, further increasing the opposition between the suspects' families and defense lawyers and the public authorities.
第三，至少在我接触的范围内，大部分官员，国企领导慑于身为党的干部命运的无常，现在已经不敢像前几年一样谋政绩，讲效益，很多体制内的朋友形成一个共识:这几年，越低调越好，让人想不起你最好。
Third, at least within my experience, most officials and state-owned enterprise leaders, intimidated by the uncertainty of their fate as party cadres, now dare not seek achievements and efficiency as they did a few years ago. Many friends within the system have reached a consensus: in recent years, the lower the profile, the better; it's best if people don't remember you.
千万别干事，只要干事就会有辫子，有辫子就难保不被查，老账新账一起算，谁经得起查？
Don't do anything significant; as soon as you do, you'll leave a trail, and with a trail, it's hard to ensure you won't be investigated. With old and new accounts settled together, who can withstand scrutiny?
由于中国至今还不是真正的市场经济，办企业搞项目都要经过层层审批，一旦整个官僚体系都消极怠工，这个国家的经济发展可想而知。
Since China is not yet a true market economy, running businesses and projects requires approval at multiple levels. Once the entire bureaucratic system adopts a passive work attitude, the impact on the country's economic development is predictable.
我最近和一些企业界朋友聊过，不少人都认为大的经济发展需要空前的思想解放，当前中国企业界最需要的是拆除准入门槛，加强产权保护，实现土地平权，但现在不但没见放权，反而为了反腐猛抓企业家，这种情势下谁还敢投资？
I've recently spoken with some friends in the business community, many of whom believe that significant economic development requires unprecedented ideological liberation. What the Chinese business sector needs most now is the removal of barriers to entry, strengthened property rights, and equal land rights. But not only has there been no decentralization, but entrepreneurs are being aggressively targeted in the anti-corruption campaign. In such a situation, who would dare to invest?
第四，中国固然有仇官仇富的悠久传统，在中国，领导人依靠反腐败最容易凝聚人心。
Fourth, China indeed has a long tradition of resentment towards officials and the wealthy. In China, leaders can most easily rally public support by fighting corruption.
但是，中国最易变的同样也是人心。在现在的权力运行体制不根本改变的情况下，那些今日为周的落马奔走相告像过节一样兴奋的人们，明天会痛苦地看到，他们的生活并没有因为几个高官的被抓而变得容易，到衙门办事仍然要看人脸色，工作问题，看病问题，子女上学就业问题任然是摆脱不掉的折磨。
However, what is most changeable in China is also the human heart. Without fundamental changes in the current power operation system, those who today excitedly spread the news of Zhou's downfall as if celebrating a festival will painfully realize tomorrow that their lives have not become easier because a few high-ranking officials were arrested. They still have to face the whims of officials when dealing with government affairs; issues with work, healthcare, and their children's education and employment remain inescapable torments.
到那时，无论多少打老虎的消息被公布，仍然无法阻挡被剥夺了国民待遇的底层群众以他们自己的方式去抗争，去呐喊。借助反腐搞权力斗争的猜测更会甚嚣尘上。
By then, no matter how many "tiger-hunting" announcements are made, it still won't stop the deprived lower-class citizens from struggling and voicing their protests in their own ways. Speculations of using anti-corruption as a means of power struggle will become even more rampant.
总之，以权力反腐，靠个案治贪，实在是治标不治本之举。
In summary, relying on power to fight corruption and addressing greed on a case-by-case basis is truly a measure that treats the symptoms rather than the root cause.
执政党为国家长治久安计，同时也为其本党利益计，目前唯一正确的做法，就是借助一年来铁腕反腐形成的党内权威和社会支持，真正建立制度反腐的基石。
For the long-term stability of the country and the interests of the party itself, the only correct approach now is to leverage the internal authority and social support formed by the iron-fisted anti-corruption efforts over the past year to truly lay the foundation for systemic anti-corruption.
而制度反腐，并没有单一有效的措施可以孤立地使用，想把中国打造成一个廉洁社会，首先必须限制权力，砍掉踩住市场这只看不见的手的所有政府权力，裁撤一切阻碍市场发挥作用的部门，痛下决心让国企退出所有竞争性领域，这才能最大地减少权力寻租的机会。
Systemic anti-corruption does not rely on a single effective measure that can be used in isolation. To transform China into a clean society, it is first necessary to limit power, cut off all government powers that step on the invisible hand of the market, abolish all departments that hinder the market's function, and decisively allow state-owned enterprises to exit all competitive fields. This is the best way to minimize opportunities for power rent-seeking.
其次，靠公权力反腐败就像龟兔赛跑，代表公益的乌龟总是跑不过代表私欲的兔子。真正有效的方式是让权利制约权力，让市场的参与者有利用合法方式捍卫自己权利的平台，这就需要中国实现真正的新闻自由，所有受到公权力压榨盘剥的市场主体，都能通过媒体曝光不法官员的罪行，利用社会监督的强大力量让官员不敢腐败，不能腐败。
Secondly, relying on public power to fight corruption is like the race between the tortoise and the hare, where the tortoise, representing public welfare, always fails to outrun the hare, representing private desires. The truly effective method is to allow rights to constrain power, giving market participants a platform to legally defend their rights. This requires the realization of real press freedom in China, where all market entities oppressed by public power can expose the crimes of corrupt officials through the media, using the powerful force of social supervision to deter officials from corruption.
第三，由于存在在复杂的利益冲突，不能说所有对公权力的揭发都是对的，这就需要建立有公信力的独立司法，在权利的边缘划界限，为官员和公民建立起明确的行为规则。以公共建设中的招投标为例，现在哪一个大项目开标后，都少不了有投标人四处告状，揭发业主方评标违规，揭发有领导暗中干预，但纪委对这种举报往往是置之不理，甚至不少纪委领导还借此向企业为关系人要项目。如果赋予投标人向法院起诉的权利，让独立的法官在公正的法庭上对招标的合法性做出裁判，无疑能从根本上改变目前中国招投标流于形式的事实。
Third, due to complex conflicts of interest, not all exposures of public power are correct. This necessitates the establishment of a credible independent judiciary to draw boundaries at the edge of rights and establish clear rules of conduct for officials and citizens. Take public construction bidding as an example: now, after the opening of any major project, there are invariably bidders who complain about irregularities in the evaluation of bids or allege that leaders have intervened in secret. However, the disciplinary committee often ignores such reports, and many of its leaders even use this as an opportunity to solicit projects for their associates. Granting bidders the right to sue in court and allowing independent judges to make fair judgments on the legality of bidding in court would undoubtedly fundamentally change the current situation where Chinese bidding processes are merely formalities.
最后，本人的结论是:如果新领导人能充分利用其借助于反腐形成的个人权威，推动中国向法治国家转型，不但可以从根本上治理腐败，同时也为国家的长治久安打下了坚实的基础，实在是前无古人的大功业。相反，如果像现在一样只停留在权力反腐，个案反腐的阶段，不但不能有效遏制腐败，当前中国的反腐行动，以及此次反腐的主导者，都将很快流失在历史长河中而淹没无闻。
In conclusion, if the new leaders can fully utilize the personal authority formed through anti-corruption to promote China's transformation into a rule-of-law country, not only can corruption be fundamentally addressed, but a solid foundation for the country's long-term stability and security can also be laid, marking an unprecedented great achievement. On the contrary, if we remain at the stage of fighting corruption through power and case-by-case anti-corruption efforts as is currently the case, not only will it be ineffective in curbing corruption, but the current anti-corruption actions and the leaders of this round of anti-corruption will soon be lost to the river of history and become obscure.
2014年7月29日，写于巴塞尔到明斯特的列车上
July 29, 2014, written on the train from Basel to Münster.